Brexit

The Snap, Crackle & Pop Election

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Introduction

So it’s the eve of the registration deadline (tomorrow night, 11:59pm), and just under 3 weeks until the general election itself. As someone that enjoys and keeps up with politics, the last few weeks have been both tedious and tiresome. Mainstream media have been busy with its right winged propaganda whilst social media has been inundated with its left winged counterpart (of which I have also been guilty of). In the age of ‘alternative facts’ and information bombardment, it has become increasingly hard to form an informed opinion. What’s more is that it seems that there is no longer any room for rational debate, opinion is no longer separated from the person. The topic of politics is a taboo, with character assassination becoming increasingly more prevalent rather than the objective scrutiny of policies.

There will be a fair few people who will still be undecided on which way they will vote. This should not be an opportunity for us to instantly force our bias and agenda upon them… I am myself fairly left in my politics, with my key concerns being the underfunding of the National Health Service, social care and disability benefits (amongst many others)… however, it would be extremely ignorant of me to assume everyone has the same beliefs and rank them in the same order of importance as I do.

Therefore, my aim is to try and provide an informative pathway to help guide people to find the correct choice based on their own beliefs.

Register to vote!

The first step is to register to vote, I feel everyone should exercise their right to vote. Even if it means spoiling your ballot paper. I cannot stress enough how much it infuriates me when someone says “well you can’t blame me because I didn’t vote.” Yes, yes I can! Someone having a different opinion to me isn’t the problem. Apathy, however, is and it’s inexcusable! So please at the very least register to vote by 11:59 the 22nd of May. It literally takes less than 5 minutes.

Figure 1 shows the percentage of the people registered onto the electorate but did not exercise their right to vote vs. the vote percentage for each of the major parties in the 2015 general election (Reference). As you can see the non-voters could have had a major say in the last general election.

Figure 1 % of electorate

Figure 1: Showing percentage of electorate who didn’t vote vs. percentage party vote (Click to Enlarge)

N.B. If you don’t have your polling card yet, it’s likely you’re not yet registered. 

Finding the Right Party for You

The next important thing is to find a party who matches your opinions. Each party should have a manifesto, however, these are usually over 100 pages long and tend to use smoke and mirror tactics instead of informative information. Very few people have the time to read these and will probably be more confused than ever if they did.

My recommendation is to utilise the online questionnaires which focus on key areas. These allow you to provide answers to questions that you believe to be the best options. Some also allow you to rank each issue on how important each issue are to you. The results will show which party best represents your beliefs from your answers. This will get you out of the starting blocks and give you a direction for research. I would recommend doing multiple tests for an increased accuracy. Below are 4 sites I have used and have found quite useful:

Further Research your Local Area, and MP.

Once you have found the parties that you feel you’re most in line with, it would be an idea to research your local area. This will be the MP and seat you will be voting into parliament. Remember, you’re not actually voting for Corbyn, May et al., (unless they are your local MP) but for your local MP. One of the best things to research would be what your local MP has voted for and against in the past and see if they match what you would have voted if you were in similar position.

Finally, you could look up past results of your local constituency via the electoral calculus. This will show how popular each party has been in the past. If you are still struggling to choose between two parties you can see which party has been historically more popular in the area and thus more likely to gain/hold the seat. This is also useful if your motivation is to try and keep a party out, rather than voting a party in. You can look at their direct competition within your area.

I hope this has proven useful, feel free to comment and share. I cannot stress enough, everyone has a right to vote, everyone has a right to an opinion and choice, not everyone is going to have the same opinion and choice. Just make sure you’re certain that you’re making the right choices for you and your family. 5 years is a very long time! Happy Voting!

“I’m Bereft you see, I think you can tell, I haven’t been doing too well…”

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The title is lyrics extracted from The 1975 song Nana, and I think the closest thing that represents my feelings on the back of the EU referendum vote. I am feeling: angry, ashamed, tired, sad, numb but most of all lost. I have been called a sore loser, I have resented this, most of all because this was not a game! Not some football cup final where by in large it all goes back to normal for the season to follow. This has changed the whole country on its head, and I am aware this is not a bad thing for a small majority of you, but please remember it feels catastrophic for a large minority.

I do not judge people on their vote, it is how democracy works (although with such a huge decsion I would expect a larger majority threshold). I do not feel I can say any individual is wrong with what they voted, it’s all opinion and no more invalid than my own. However as much as I accept that some people are happy with this outcome, please accept that just under 50% are devastated. I personally feel lost, I’ve lost my identity and nationality. My favourite attribute of the ‘United’ Kingdom was togetherness and its multicultural society pulling together. I feel the message we have sent is xenophobia and that we’re a nation that has no time for outsiders. Quotes of “take our country back”, you may feel you have got it back, but I feel I have fundamentally lost mine. I feel we have ostracised ~5% of our population that have contributed so much to and for our country. I love the multiple cultures within our society, all their different ethics and beliefs. Learning about these things has made me a person that I am extremely proud of. The Country is something I am, for now, genuinely ashamed of… our Kingdom appears divided, Scotland wants independence and has been given fuel to ascertain a new referendum (personally I am sick of the word). Northern Ireland has been reported as to be looking into uniting with the Republic of Ireland, who have historically been rivals. By the end we could just be England and Wales; whilst there will be a United Ireland and Independent Scotland.

I am worried because the economy will take a hit, the Pound Sterling (£) has already plummeted to lows not seen since before my lifetime. The Prime Minister resigned; someone who I have despised since his rise to power, but now worry because he was the lesser of the potential evils that can now rise unelected. I am also angry because people ignored independent experts on the economy who said the exit would lead to £20-40 billion of damages. “Scaremongering” were the claims, THESE were both INDEPENDENT and EXPERTS! This is the economic equivalent of Doctors and Consultants within the health service. If a Doctor or Consultant stated that you have cancer or some other life-threatening disease, are you just going to write that off as ‘scaremongering’? Why have we all been so ignorant to overlook the experts through this? It’s not just one expert but an overwhelming majority of experts (oh, and did I mention, that they were independent?). it’s left me baffled and confused.

Yes, Leave won 51.9% to 48.1% where the majority of the educated and youth (under 30 years old) were on the losing side. I have seen the youth being patronised, labelled as naive. The educated being listed as classist and pretentious… Why are we so intent to draw differences and tarnish everyone with the same brush! Not only that, most of these people are going to be pivotal to the rebuilding of this country and the future of it, like it or not. It is also important to note that these two groups of the population are the most likely to be granted a visa to other countries, allowing them to contribute to other economies as migrants. Please, not allowing them to grieve for their beliefs and futures, telling them to get over it, just 1 day after the result could lead to a build up of resentment and is essentially just pushing them to leave.

Maybe I am feeling irrational and melodramatic, but it is what I am feeling. Please be respectful of this. Just like I respect that some are feeling euphoric and proud.

Goodbye, Great Britain… and goodbye Europe, we’ve been great comrades and the past has been a blast. Now it’s time to become Britain, and build a new future…

EU Referendum

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Introduction

In or Out? This is a question on many people’s lips, with the undecided being set upon by the decided. There has been a lot of scare mongering from either side of the campaign. Which in turn has caused some truths to be listed within the same category… it’s been extremely hard to ascertain fact from fiction, manipulated figures from legitimate figures, each side has had their own motivation or agenda. My aim is to look into the key popular arguments and dig to the truth which our politicians seem set against in doing.

I implore you to read to the end, It is imperative that you know exactly what you are voting for!  I don’t want to be a part of a generation to potentially jeopardise the economy and living for the generations to follow us…

I would also like you to forgive my poor writing style, it’s been a long time since I have written a report and I’m not the most literate in the first place. I would also hasten to add that I have been writing the bulk of this in my breaks during my night shifts… so bear with me…

The Fee/what do we get?

The leave campaign states in their ‘VOTE LEAVE’ leaflet:

“The EU costs us at least £350 million a week”

This figure is very misleading, this fee constitutes to £18 billion a year, a fee we never actually pay, due to an immediate rebate of £5 billion, making the annual fee £13 billion. the EU also pays a further £4 billion to the public sector, this is in the form of payments to the poorer regions of the UK and Farmers within the UK. Thus once calculating the net contributions from either side, the fee stands at ~£8.5 billion per year. that’s under half the original figure quoted in the Leave Campaign. Figure 1a illustrates the breakdown of the fee, whilst figure 1b shows the Net Contribution of 2015. It’s also worth to note that the EU also pays to the private sector, in the form of research grants, in 2013 it was reported that the EU paid an estimated £1.3 billion to the UK’s private sector so that contribution fee could potentially be further reduced (Reference).

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Figure 1a: Shows how the rebate and public sector payments affect the contribution fee

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Figure 1b: Shows the Net UK-EU Net contribution in 2015

Just to show how much of the UK’s budget this takes up, The BBC recently published HMRC’s ‘Example of the Government’s annual tax summary’ shown in figure 2 (Reference), The NET contribution to the EU is 0.3% of GDP in 2014 (Reference). The leave campaign note that they can use this money to invest in the Health and Education Sectors. Even if they did intend to do this (I have my suspicions) I don’t think that 0.3% of GDP would make up an iota of difference, especially when you think that the poorer regions and farmers lose out on £4 billion a year, that they will not receive from the EU if we leave. So only a measly £4.5 billion can be shared out for the health and education sectors. Furthermore, independent experts have noted that between £20-40 billion worth of damages would need to be paid if UK were to vote leave (Reference). The same report also hypothesises that the deficit currently expected to be paid off by 2019-2020 may not be cleared if EU exit were to happen. All so we can save between £4.5-8.5 billion…

 

http-::www.bbc.co.uk:news:business-29898083

Figure 2: Shows the Government’s annual tax summary of 2014

In Summary, Yes the UK does suffer a loss in contribution fees for it’s EU membership, but not to the extreme that the leave campaign has been on record to saying, in fact, the figure is >50% less than the £18 billion figure quoted.This is before tourism trade from the free movement of EU visitors and ourselves going on holiday (not having to fork out for a travel visa to go to Ibiza, Prague or Paris). In fact, the £8.5 billion is actually less than the £9 billion average NET Contribution paid since 1973 (Reference). Some have quoted that it roughly costs 40p per person per day (Reference), that’s less than a can of coke (Reference)…

Immigration

This has been another one of the key debates within this referendum campaign, with the ‘VOTE LEAVE’ leaflet stating:

 “Over Quarter of a million people migrate to the UK from EU every year, having impact to public services”

Let’s look into this, The telegraph note that Immigration has cost the Exchequer £1.2 billion last year (Reference), this, however, is a one-sided figure as it does not add in what immigration contributes to government revenue. It’s essentially like stating that a railcard costs £30 and not adding how much you save through using it…

The Economist reported that when EU migration cost  and contribution were calculated, a positive NET Contribution was estimated at £4 billion, between periods of 1995-2011. Whereas Britons had a negative NET contribution of £591 billion for the same time period. In recent years, Eastern Europeans have gained the brunt of this immigration debate. In the same article, the Economist reports that since 2004 eastern Europeans have contributed a net contribution of £5 billion, and even in the worse years of the recession during 2007-2011 showed a positive NET contribution of £2 billion. with other migrant workers from other EU countries contributing a further £8.6 billion in this period (Reference).

So it’s clear to see that EU migrant workers contribute to the economy in taxation, so the next point is the drain and extra demand on public services and welfare. The Guardian reported earlier this year that only 4.5% of migrants claimed out-of-work benefits and ~15% claimed tax credits last year. This means that ~80% of migrants were in high paid jobs and contributing fully to the country. The article also reported that more than 60% of new migrants (~900,000) from southern and eastern Europe that work in this country are also University Graduates, with a further 25% being Eastern European graduates ( a similar proportion to UK born population). This suggests that much of the EU migration are skilled workers and would be granted immigration status irrelevant of the EU free movement (Reference).

The NHS also benefits from EU freedom of movement, ~5% of NHS workers (of which >10% are doctors and 4% are nurses)  are EU migrants according the English Health Service’s Electronic Staff Record (Reference). It is reported that ~5% of the English population are EU migrants, thus, again Migrants contribute to the NHS at the same rate of permanent residence (Reference).

In summary, EU migrants contribute both economically and within the NHS, with only 4.5% of workers on out-of-work benefits, which with the new reform recently negotiated within the EU parliament, means that EU workers will need to have worked in the UK and contributed to government revenues for 4 years, before they can claim tax-related benefits and credits, minimising that figure furthermore if we were to Remain.

Input of UK Laws

Finally the last key point I have seen argued and again is written in the ‘VOTE LEAVE’ leaflet is:

“EU Law overrules UK Laws”

Although it’s hard to put an exact number to how many laws the EU ‘overrule’, The house of commons library reports that true for ~7% of the UK’s laws (Reference). The UK has control of its own Budget and how it divides it’s money within the public sector (see figure 2), and also governs minimum wage.

Official EU voting records actually suggest that since 1999 UK ministers have been on the ‘winning’ side 95% of the time when it comes to implementing EU laws, with the other 5% being made up through abstaining and ‘losing’ (3% and 2% respectively). Not only have the UK ministers agreed with these “unreasonable” laws 95% of the time, but the UK government also has the power to influence these policies in the early stages of negotiations in the legislation’s draft (Reference). Unfortunately, the records only show laws that have eventually passed, so there is no evidence to show how many laws the UK managed to successfully oppose or unsuccessfully ascertain.

So let’s look at some of the legislation the UK are ‘bound’ to from the EU:

The Environment

The House of Commons Library states; EU legislation sets limits for a range of air pollutants that all member states of the EU need to abide by. The UK failed to do this is 40 of our air quality zones and had to appear before the supreme court and led to a unanimous judgement that they draft up new plans to combat the reduction in air quality (specifically NO2) by the end of 2015, which the government implemented. The EU have a number of other Environmental directives that the UK must abide by including, waste, water quality, and chemicals (Reference).

The UK also have to abide by the renewables directive (2009) meaning by 2020 the UK must get 15% of its energy from renewable sources, which was at 2.4% in 2008. In 2013 it had been increased to 5.2%. An EU exit would put all of this in question. after all, we all share the same environment as everyone else, unfortunately, the air pollutants don’t share the same border controls as we do. Thus, it seems that we should all have the same targets and work together to improve this, learn from each other on best ways. Finland, Germany and Sweden have accelerated EU progression who are known to be more environmentally progressive (Reference).

Employment/Workers Rights

The House of Commons Library states; that an EU exit could “foreshadow significant change to UK employment law” much of which has stemmed from EU legislation. This includes:

  • Annual Leave
  • Worker Rights (full-time, part-time, fixed-term & agency)
  • Collective Redundancy
  • Maternity, Paternity and Parent Leave
  • Protection of employment under the transfer of business
  • Anti-Discrimination legislation

an EU exit could result in going backwards in this progression, the current government were originally against this ‘Social Policy’ (Reference) and I do not feel that they are not beneath going against this, they have already cut junior doctors wages (Reference), cut nursing bursaries (Reference) and cut disability benefits (Reference). Do we really want these people in charge of our annual leave, maternity and paternity pay too?

High profile people backing Remain and Leave:

Finally again in the ‘VOTE LEAVE’ leaflet it claims:

“Experts, Politicians and businesses are divided”

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Figure 3: Team Remain vs. Team Leave

Personally, I don’t see much of a divide…

Remember if you’re still not sure, think of this; it will be easier to leave the EU after voting remain than it will be to rejoin EU after voting leave, think of the generations of children that will come after us. The SNP are proving that their independence referendum can still happen again, so can an EU referendum to leave. Don’t think that it will be that easy to rejoin.